Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin at $200,000 by End of 2025, but Doesn’t Expect ETH and SOL to Hit New Highs

Leading asset manager Bitwise has released its Mid-Year Scorecard, providing a comprehensive view of the cryptocurrency market, reviewing previous predictions and making bold predictions for the second half of the year.

Bitcoin Still the Star $200,000 Target Intact
According to the report, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be the main focus of the market. While it fell short of the expected $200,000 mark in December 2024, BTC still hit a new high of $112,000 by May 2025 – which Bitwise considers “half-way there”.

Factors driving the rally include:

Strong inflows from Bitcoin ETFs.

Large-scale accumulation from treasury firms.

The establishment of a US Bitcoin reserve, despite controversy over its size and transparency.

Bitwise reaffirms its view that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, highlighting three key drivers:

Crypto-friendly policies from the Trump administration 2.0.

Strong institutional demand.

Steady growth of stablecoins and crypto-based payment ecosystems.

Ethereum and Solana: Downward correction expectations
In contrast to Bitcoin, Bitwise has lowered its expectations for Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) for the rest of the year. Initially predicting both would reach new highs, Bitwise now admits it has not seen any strong enough real-world evidence to confirm that.

Factors that have made them more cautious include:

Delays in approving staking ETFs and stablecoins.

Lack of active activity from financial institutions on ETH/SOL.

Liquidity Focuses on Bitcoin, Leaving Major Altcoins “Abandoned” in the Short-Term.

ETF Flows, RWA Tokenization, Stablecoins, and National Reserves: Some Successes, Some Disappointments
✅ Bitcoin ETFs Still a Bright Spot
Bitwise Forecasts ETF Flows to Exceed 2024 in 2025. While it only recorded $13 billion in the first half of the year compared to $35 billion for all of 2024, they are optimistic that the supporting platforms will continue to grow and will boost flows by the end of the year.

✅ Real Asset Tokenization (RWA) Gains Momentum
The value of tokenized assets has increased from $13 billion to $25 billion, and Bitwise expects to surpass $50 billion by the end of the year, driven by the expansion of tokenized real estate, carbon credits, bonds, and commodities.

❌ Bitcoin Accumulation by Countries Not as Expected
Despite forecasting a rise in the number of countries holding BTC from 9 to 18, Bitwise admits that the trend is still happening quietly, with no public leaps from governments.

❌ Stablecoins below initial target
Having initially expected stablecoin AUM to reach $400 billion, Bitwise has now revised its target to around $300 billion, amid delays in the GENIUS Act and opacity in global payment policies.

Mistakes and Retrospectives: Coinbase, AI memecoins and regulatory frameworks
Bitwise frankly admits some mistakes in its 2024 forecast:

❌ Coinbase failed to surpass Charles Schwab in market capitalization as predicted.

❌ The AI memecoin craze has cooled off quickly, especially after coins like LIBRA, MELANIA, OFFICIAL TRUMP plummeted.

❌ The US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan Disappoints as It Only Includes Foreclosed Assets, Not New Purchases by the Treasury.

However, they were right in predicting Coinbase joining the S&P 500 – a major step in cementing the exchange’s institutional status.

H2 2025 Outlook: Conditionally Optimistic
Bitwise believes the following factors could continue to fuel Bitcoin’s bullish momentum:

Trump 2.0 Administration Shows Openness to Crypto.

SEC Begins to Withdraw Cases Under Biden.

Stablecoins and Staking ETFs Could Be Approved.

However, political uncertainty and a divided US Congress on crypto regulation remain potential risks.

Conclusion
Bitwise continues to hold a strong bullish view on Bitcoin, considering it the leading asset in the 2025 bull cycle. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Solana may need more time to regain strong growth momentum. With RWAs, stablecoins, and ETFs expanding rapidly, crypto enters the second half of the year with many opportunities, but also many challenges.